Next Boston QWAFAFEW Meeting:
Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017
Time: 6:15 PM sharpe
3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street
RSVP to hugh@QWAFAFEW.org
OPEN-SOURCE S&P500 EXPECTED RETURNS
QWAFAFEW discussions led by:
We seek better public estimates for future stock returns that can be used for a wide variety of purposes, ranging from naïve long-term financial planning to benchmarking sophisticated tactical asset allocation. This discussion illustrates a model averaging approach combining very long-term estimates with 10 year and 1 year forecasts, weighted across the three forecast models to be suitable to the particular user’s needs. The open-source approach makes the components transparent and the methods simple so that others can easily understand, validate, and modify. Very long-term estimates are based on both the historical record and economic and shareholder equilibrium. 10-year estimates are based on a critical reconstruction of Campbell and Shiller’s CAPE valuation model. 1-year estimates are based on Wilcox’s PB-ROE valuation model and an economic momentum measure based on currency returns. Recent estimates are also discussed.
Jarrod began in 2001 to serve investing families through Wilcox Investment, Inc. He has been at various times director of international equities, of currency, and of research, Panagora Asset Management, director of international investments, Batterymarch Financial Management, and chief investment officer, Colonial Management Associates. Earlier, he was an assistant professor at MIT’s Sloan School and a consultant at The Boston Consulting Group. Jarrod serves on the advisory board of the Journal of Portfolio Management, and is co-author of the CFA Research Institute ‘s Investment Management for Taxable Private Investors, and co-author of Financial Advice and Investment Decisions: A Manifesto for Change, John Wiley & Sons, 2013. Current extracurricular activities are centered on Wealthmate, Inc., founded to develop Internet-based financial planning and investment tools.
Please RSVP hugh@QWAFAFEW.org
All annual dues ($150) should be paid to Boston QWAFAFEW by credit card, Bitcoin or check.
By credit card (PayPal)
Send us Bitcoin, our address is:
Please send a separate email identifying your anonymous payment.
Executive Management Associates
12 Academy Avenue
Atkinson, NH 03811
Please RSVP for all meetings you plan to attend: hugh@QWAFAFEW.org
Guests who do not RSVP may have to wait to enter the meeting, due to space constraints (capacity=100, BFD).
Guest fees ($30) can be paid through EMA (check or PayPal, bring receipt) or bitcoin (at address above). We still allow walk-ins (space permitting). The $30 guest fee can be paid by bitcoin, cash or check at the door, no credit cards at the meeting. Please bring exact change (eg: two twenties = $40 Guest Fee).
As always, if you have names or discussion topics, please forward them to any member of the Steerage Committee
Donna Cool Murphy (Dinners)
The members of the Steerage Committee are responsible for coordinating the program content.
Program suggestions from members are always welcome.
RSVP to: hugh@QWAFAFEW.org