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Next Boston QWAFAFEW Meeting: Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017

February 21 @ 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm

| $30

Next Boston QWAFAFEW Meeting: 

Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017

 

Time: 6:15 PM sharpe

3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street

RSVP to hugh@QWAFAFEW.org

 

QWAFAFEW Mailing List

 

 

OPEN-SOURCE S&P500 EXPECTED RETURNS

 

 

QWAFAFEW discussions led by:

 

Jarrod Wilcox

 

Abstract

 

We seek better public estimates for future stock returns that can be used for a wide variety of purposes, ranging from naïve long-term financial planning to benchmarking sophisticated tactical asset allocation. This discussion illustrates a model averaging approach combining very long-term estimates with 10 year and 1 year forecasts, weighted across the three forecast models to be suitable to the particular user’s needs.  The open-source approach makes the components transparent and the methods simple so that others can easily understand, validate, and modify.  Very long-term estimates are based on both the historical record and economic and shareholder equilibrium.  10-year estimates are based on a critical reconstruction of Campbell and Shiller’s CAPE valuation model.  1-year estimates are based on Wilcox’s PB-ROE valuation model and an economic momentum measure based on currency returns.  Recent estimates are also discussed.

DOWNLOAD:  wilcox_qwafafew2017x

 

Bio

 

Jarrod began in 2001 to serve investing families through Wilcox Investment, Inc.  He has been at various times director of international equities, of currency, and of research, Panagora Asset Management, director of international investments, Batterymarch Financial Management, and chief investment officer, Colonial Management Associates.   Earlier, he was an assistant professor at MIT’s Sloan School and a consultant at The Boston Consulting Group.  Jarrod serves on the advisory board of the Journal of Portfolio Management, and is co-author of the CFA Research Institute ‘s Investment Management for Taxable Private Investors, and co-author of Financial Advice and Investment Decisions: A Manifesto for Change, John Wiley & Sons, 2013.  Current extracurricular activities are centered on Wealthmate, Inc., founded to develop Internet-based financial planning and investment tools.

 

 

Please RSVP hugh@QWAFAFEW.org

 

QWAFAFEW Mailing List

 

 

 

All annual dues ($150) should be paid to Boston QWAFAFEW by credit card, Bitcoin or check.

By credit card (PayPal)

http://qwafafew.org/BostonPayDues.html

 

By Bitcoin

Send us Bitcoin, our address is:

153GtwqHHxdHaTh8i1SC1UmZUuFpXN6wye

Please send a separate email identifying your anonymous payment.

 

By check:

Executive Management Associates

12 Academy Avenue

Atkinson, NH  03811

bostonqwafafewbilling@gmail.com

 

 

Please RSVP for all meetings you plan to attend: hugh@QWAFAFEW.org

Guests who do not RSVP may have to wait to enter the meeting, due to space constraints (capacity=100, BFD).

 

Guest fees ($30) can be paid through EMA (check or PayPal, bring receipt) or bitcoin (at address above). We still allow walk-ins (space permitting). The $30 guest fee can be paid by bitcoin, cash or check at the door, no credit cards at the meeting. Please bring exact change (eg: two twenties = $40 Guest Fee).

 

As always, if you have names or discussion topics, please forward them to any member of the Steerage Committee

 

Questions, comments:

bostonqwafafewbilling@gmail.com

hugh@QWAFAFEW.org

 

 

Steerage Committee

Hugh Crowther

Dan diBartolomeo

Mike Dunn

Steve Gaudette

Sri Krishnamurthy

Mark Kritzman

John Minahan

Donna Cool Murphy (Dinners)

Larry Pohlman

Dan Potter

Dan Rie

Evan Schulman

Michael Wilcox

 

The members of the Steerage Committee are responsible for coordinating the program content.

Program suggestions from members are always welcome.

 

RSVP to: hugh@QWAFAFEW.org

Details

Date:
February 21
Time:
6:00 pm - 8:00 pm
Cost:
$30

Venue

Tennis & Racquet Club
3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street
Boston, MA,
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